The Dominance of Group Chats in Today’s World

I’m not especially powerful; it doesn’t matter which in-jokes include me and which dinners I’m invited to. But it’s instructive to think of the digital rooms being constructed by those who are. We often get glimpses of such group chats in court filings, the familiar blue-and-white bubbles of iMessage screenshotted and laid out as evidence. A chain of messages among Sean Hannity, Laura Ingraham and Tucker Carlson, for instance, was one of many chats at issue in Dominion Voting Systems’ defamation suit against Fox News. The tone is amusingly familiar; they complain, gossip, co-process the news. Carlson admits something he’d never say on air: “We are very, very close to being able to ignore Trump most nights. I truly can’t wait.” (He sounds like an MSNBC-addled liberal in 2019!) They bitch about Fox colleagues. “My anger at the news channel,” Ingraham writes, “is pronounced. Lol.” (Softening the sentiment with an awkward digital laugh — she’s just like me!) But she also acknowledges the possible influence of the group. “I think the three of us have enormous power,” she writes, and then, later: “We should all think about how together we can force a change.”

That “thinking together,” pinging back and forth in real time, moving toward something nonspecific but nonetheless quite tangible — that’s the stuff of a group chat. There have always been backroom meetings among powerful media figures, but such things no longer happen in the proverbial smoke-filled room; they happen constantly and more diffusely. I know of a group chat in which, among other things, a group of successful men trade investment tips and even function sometimes as a de facto investment group. (I am not in that chat — would I have more money if I were?) There are others in which people’s co-processing eventually has them psyching one another up into breaking the law — as in the Jan. 6 insurrection, which also dumped troves of group chats into court records. Sam Bankman-Fried had, according to The Australian Financial Review, a group chat called “Wirefraud.” He has denied this, but it’s funny how easy it is to imagine it being true: Where else would a group of tech people coordinate fraud but in the chat?

Such chats need not be explicitly nefarious. Often their power is an indirect result of tenuous social bonds, people rubbing up against one another digitally all day long. The Silicon Valley Bank run in March of last year might be at least partly traced back to a group chat involving, as described by one member on Twitter, “200+ tech founders.” The man tweeting this described the familiar experience of seeing stressful messages pop up during a bathroom break at work; seeing alarming chatter about the bank, he canceled a meeting and immediately urged his wife to pull their money out. Others followed suit. You have to wonder what was being said in this “200+ tech founders” group chat before the bank run. If I had to guess, the basic content would not be unlike my own chats: a jumble of links, a hodgepodge of different conversations that start and stop. I imagine people complaining about Bay Area housing policies or trading recommendations for the latest mushroom-based coffee replacement. Without realizing it, they might have built something together, however undefined — a community based in shared values and interests and hobbies, reaffirmed daily by the little stuff, down to what restaurants they like in Hayes Valley. Then someone questions a bank’s solvency, others latch onto it and all hell breaks loose.

People act irrationally all the time, based on limited information, but there is something specific and maybe even unprecedented about this number of influential people working at this speed, their reactions all caroming off one another’s in one digital place, then bouncing back into the real world to send millions of dollars one way or another. The dynamics of group chats — who is in them, who is not — might seem like the adult version of kids’ jockeying for a lunch table. But those dynamics may determine not just who eats where, but also financial events, political events, news of real import. None of these things are entirely extricable, and all of it is now happening at hyperspeed.

One of my favorite group chats, now defunct, was among me and two friends I was suddenly becoming closer to. It was called “Recently Single Club,” a name chosen as a kind of joke, despite circumstances that to us didn’t feel much like a joke at all — for me, the painful ending of a nearly-five-year relationship that had defined my adult life. We were not, in the group chat, discussing the realities of our newfound conditions, though we did plenty of this in person, sometimes as a trio over drinks. Looking back at our texts — sent at a high clip during a strange, slightly manic spring and summer — I see us doing other things: providing one another with a kind of idle and sometimes distracting presence that in some ways amounted to very little, a form of constant low-grade company that was both intermittent and dependable. It was what I could tolerate: giving one another “Top Gun” nicknames, trading gossip and bad-music recommendations, arranging a mutual listening session on Spotify while getting ready for a party — the virtual version of someone’s simply sitting next to you in the midst of illness or grief, doing nothing much more than being there. Eventually the chat was renamed to reflect that we were no longer recently single, exactly — some of us were no longer single at all — and then it mostly petered out, replaced by other, larger chats, different combinations of friends.

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Trump’s Enduring Connection with His Voters: The Strongest Force in American Politics

Bill Clinton once explained the nation’s two political parties by saying that Democrats want to fall in love while Republicans want to fall in line.

That adage has not withstood the Trump era. Today, it is Republicans who are besotted.

Donald J. Trump’s decisive victory in Iowa revealed a new depth to the reservoir of devotion inside his party. For eight years, he has nurtured a relationship with his supporters with little precedent in politics. He validates them, he entertains them, he speaks for them and he uses them for his political and legal advantage.

This connection — a hard-earned bond for some, a cult of personality to others — has unleashed one the most durable forces in American politics.

Iowa Republicans, following the lead of party officials across the country, rallied behind the former president despite a list of reasons to reject him. Republicans lost control of the presidency, the Senate and the House during his four years in office. He failed to deliver the red wave of victories he promised in the 2022 midterms. He has been charged with 91 felonies in four criminal cases this past year.

And they stayed with him even as they were offered viable alternatives: Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, a popular, young governor who embraced Mr. Trump’s policies, and Nikki Haley, one of the Deep South’s first female governors, who credibly promised she could win back voters Mr. Trump drove away.

Yet in the first chance Americans had to cast judgment on Mr. Trump since he tried to overthrow an election, many Iowa Republicans made clear they don’t judge him. They adore him.

“Trump is not a candidate, he’s the leader of a national movement,” said Newt Gingrich, a former House speaker who has advised Mr. Trump. “No one has come to grips with what’s it like to take on the champion of a movement. That’s why even as all these legal issues pile up, it just infuriates his movement and increases their anger unbelievably.”

The risks associated with the kind of unusually strong hold Mr. Trump maintains on the party have already emerged.

He has encouraged supporters to view him as above fault or defeat, a mindset that can lead to the kind of political violence that shocked the nation during the Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021. Elevating charisma over character can open the door to the kind of authoritarianism that Mr. Trump has promised on the campaign trail this past year.

“A lot of the people that support Donald Trump really are fed up with democracy, representative democracy, they think that an authoritarian-style government would probably be preferable at this point, in order to save the nation or whatever,” said former Representative Charles Bass, a New Hampshire Republican who previously voted for Mr. Trump, but said he would not do so again. “I don’t think they feel threatened by having somebody who at least has the trappings of being more authoritarian than past presidents.”

Although Mr. Trump’s win was resounding, the Iowa results suggest the party remains deeply divided over his return to power. Roughly half of Iowa Republicans voted for one of Mr. Trump’s rivals, including about 20 percent who backed Mr. DeSantis, who finished in second, with Ms. Haley close behind.

Republicans who resisted Mr. Trump in Iowa included the party’s youngest voters and anti-abortion-rights conservatives who backed Mr. DeSantis, according to entrance polls.

Party strategists and officials in other states caution against drawing sweeping conclusions from the votes of a narrow slice of Republicans in a small state. As the Republican nominating contest moves to New Hampshire next week, one poll this month showed Ms. Haley within striking distance of Mr. Trump. The state’s voters tend to be more moderate and less religious, suggesting an opening for her.

Mr. DeSantis’s ability to threaten Mr. Trump is less clear. He marketed himself to voters as a Trumpian wunderkind, able to deliver America First policies without the drama and chaos that often trail the former president.

But MAGA Nation rivals the Queen’s Guard when it comes to standing at the ready to defend their sovereign, and Mr. DeSantis was turned back as Republicans showed they are less interested in policies than they are the man.

“I know that he is picked by God for this hour,” said Patricia Lage, an Iowa caucusgoer who spoke in support of Mr. Trump on Monday night in Carlisle, outside Des Moines. “There are things that he has done in the past, but we all have pasts.”

Mr. Trump has spent years tending to his voters — taking aim at their shared enemies and anticipating their grievances. He has compulsively tried to ensure that he was never out of step.

That preoccupation repeatedly drove his decisions in the White House, from refusing to wear a mask during the initial outbreak of Covid-19 in 2020 to his opposition to striking the names of Confederate generals from U.S. military bases.

More recently, Mr. Trump has attacked Mr. DeSantis for signing a six-week abortion ban and avoided committing to a federal ban on the procedure, betting that his voters will either agree or forgive him for deviating from a core conservative priority.

Perhaps most significantly, he has rallied their support amid unprecedented legal troubles in part by describing the prosecution of him as an attempt to silence them.

“You and I have been in this battle side-by-side, together — and we have been taking on the entire corrupt system in Washington like no one has ever done before,” Mr. Trump told Iowa supporters at a rally on Sunday, adding that the political establishment and global elites “are at war with us — we have to fight.”

Voter anger at political institutions remains sky-high — a dynamic that explains what appears, at first glance, to be nothing short of a political magic act: The billionaire son of a multimillionaire has become the voice for working-class Americans.

“His gift is that the average voter in Iowa, New Hampshire and state after state feels like he connects with them,” said David Bossie, Mr. Trump’s deputy campaign manager in 2016. “He’s a blue-collar billionaire.”

Both Mr. DeSantis and Ms. Haley have tried to weaken Mr. Trump’s ties to his supporters without issuing many direct attacks on Mr. Trump. But the race to emerge as the Trump alternative is becoming increasingly urgent, with limited time for the candidates to cement that standing.

Former Senator Judd Gregg of New Hampshire, a Haley supporter, lamented that much of his party had become “sort of a cult” around Mr. Trump. He still considers himself a Republican, though, and views Mr. Trump as the interloper.

“I don’t think Trump’s a Republican,” Mr. Gregg said. “He’s a demagogue.”

David Kochel, a longtime Iowa Republican operative opposed to Mr. Trump, said the former president’s bond with his voters was unlikely to be replicated by other candidates. The party has become more populist and anti-establishment, but Mr. Trump’s ability to capitalize on his celebrity status while harnessing the swirling mix of anger at elites, racial grievances and mounting distrust of political, judicial and international institutions was, for now, unique.

“He’s a unicorn in our party,” Mr. Kochel said. “Republicans have become more populist and anti-establishment, but that doesn’t mean the party will nominate Majorie Taylor Greene or Jim Jordan next. There’s no going back to the old party.”

Alyce McFadden contributed reporting.

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Microsoft is considering its options for its A.I. lab in China

When Microsoft opened an advanced research lab in Beijing in 1998, there was optimism about technology and China.

The lab pioneered Microsoft’s work in speech, image and facial recognition along with artificial intelligence that gave rise to online chatbots like ChatGPT. It eventually became one of the most important A.I. labs in the world, tapping into China’s deep intellectual talent pool, as described by Bill Gates, Microsoft’s co-founder.

However, as tensions between the United States and China mounted, Microsoft’s top leaders, including Satya Nadella and Brad Smith, debated the future of the lab for at least a year, according to four current and former employees of Microsoft.

Although questions were raised by U.S. officials about maintaining an advanced technologies lab in China, Microsoft instituted guardrails for politically sensitive work at the lab. Additionally, it opened an outpost of the lab in Vancouver, British Columbia, as a backup for relocating researchers from China.

Other major tech companies, such as Google, have scaled back their presence in China due to tensions. However, Microsoft has maintained certain operations in China, including the lab in Beijing, despite facing national security concerns.

Microsoft has debated the lab’s future for several years, with its success and prestige also attracting attention in Washington, resulting in increased restrictions on China’s access to crucial technologies.

Microsoft’s leaders discussed how to manage the tensions, with some supporting the lab while recognizing the need for guardrails and controls.

In recent years, Microsoft has limited the lab’s access to certain technologies and implemented restrictions on certain types of work at the lab. These measures are aimed at managing potential risks associated with the lab’s operations in China, particularly in relation to sensitive technologies and national security concerns.

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Study Finds Workplace Wellness Programs Have Limited Impact on Employee Health

Employee mental health services have grown into a billion-dollar industry. Newly hired individuals, once familiar with the restrooms and enrolled in 401(k) plans, are introduced to a variety of digital wellness solutions, mindfulness seminars, massage classes, resilience workshops, coaching sessions, and sleep apps.

These programs are a source of pride for progressive human resource departments, providing evidence that employers care about their employees. However, a British researcher who analyzed survey responses from 46,336 workers at companies offering such programs found that participants were not any better off than their non-participating colleagues.

The study, which was published this month in the Industrial Relations Journal, evaluated the outcomes of 90 different interventions and found only one notable exception: Workers who volunteered or engaged in charity work appeared to experience improved well-being.

In the study’s large population, none of the other offerings, including apps, coaching, relaxation classes, time management courses, or financial health sessions showed any positive effect. In fact, resilience and stress management trainings seemed to have a negative impact.

“It’s a fairly controversial finding, that these very popular programs were not effective,” said William J. Fleming, the author of the study and a fellow at Oxford University’s Wellbeing Research Center.

Dr. Fleming’s analysis suggests that employers concerned about workers’ mental health would do better to focus on “core organizational practices” like schedules, pay, and performance reviews.

“If employees do want access to mindfulness apps and sleep programs and well-being apps, there is not anything wrong with that,” he said. “But if you’re seriously trying to drive employees well-being, then it has to be about working practices.”

Dr. Fleming’s study is based on responses to the Britain’s Healthiest Workplace survey in 2017 and 2018 from workers at 233 organizations, with financial and insurance service workers, younger workers, and women slightly overrepresented.

The data captured workers at a single point in time, rather than tracking them before and after treatment. Using thousands of matched pairs from the same workplace, it compared well-being measures from workers who participated in wellness programs with those of their colleagues who did not.

It is possible that there was selection bias, since workers who enroll in, say, a resilience training program may have lower well-being to begin with, Dr. Fleming said. To address that, he separately analyzed responses from workers with high pre-existing levels of work stress, comparing those who did and did not participate. But among this group, too, the survey answers suggested that the programs had no clear benefit.

The findings call into question practices that have become commonplace across job sectors. But researchers said they came as no surprise.

“Employers want to be seen as doing something, but they don’t want to look closely and change the way work is organized,” said Tony D. LaMontagne, a professor of work, health and well-being at Deakin University in Melbourne, Australia, who was not involved in the study.

Workplace mental health interventions may send the message that “if you do these programs and you’re still feeling stressed, it must be you,” Mr. LaMontagne said. “People who don’t have a critical view might internalize that failure: ‘So I really am a loser.’”

The corporate wellness services industry has ballooned in recent years, with thousands of vendors competing for billions of dollars in revenue. Companies invest in the interventions in hopes of saving money overall by improving worker health and productivity.

Some research supports this expectation. A 2022 study tracking 1,132 workers in the United States who used Spring Health, a platform that connects employees with mental health services like therapy and medication management, found that 69.3 percent of participants showed improvement in their depression. Participants also missed fewer days of work and reported higher productivity.

There is also solid evidence that practices like mindfulness can have a positive effect. Controlled studies have consistently demonstrated lower stress and decreased anxiety and depression after mindfulness training.

The lackluster benefits that Dr. Fleming found may reflect variations in offerings, said Larissa Bartlett, a researcher at the University of Tasmania who has designed and taught mindfulness programs. “Light-touch” interventions like apps, she added, are generally less effective than one-on-one or group trainings.

A key omission, she added, is longitudinal data showing whether participants experience improvement over time. The result is a “bird’s-eye view” of the well-being of participants that “skates over changes that may occur at the individual level,” she said.

Dr. Fleming said that he was aware of the body of research supporting the treatments’ effectiveness, but that he had “never been as convinced by the very positive findings,” since the data comes from controlled trials in which the treatment is implemented very well, something that may not be the case in employer-provided programs.

Dr. David Crepaz-Keay, the head of research and applied learning at the Mental Health Foundation in the United Kingdom, who has advised the World Health Organization and Public Health England on mental health initiatives, described Dr. Fleming’s data and analysis as “certainly more robust” than “most of the research that has created the consensus that employee assistance works.”

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Key Things to Look Out for in Today’s Iowa Caucuses

The coldest Iowa caucuses in history arrive Monday night amid expectations that Republicans in the state will put former President Donald J. Trump on the march to a third G.O.P. presidential nomination.

The battle for second place, hard-fought between Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida and Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina, will anoint Mr. Trump’s closest rival ahead of the New Hampshire primary election and beyond.

The stakes for Iowans are high. Mr. Trump is pursuing a return to the presidency despite — or perhaps because of — 91 felony counts from four criminal prosecutions, a looming fraud judgment that could decide the fate of his New York real estate empire and a pending decision on the defamation of a woman he has already been held liable for sexually abusing.

His opponents have implored Republican voters to move past the “chaos” and controversies of the Trump era and pick a different standard-bearer to go up against President Biden, who beat Mr. Trump in 2020. Iowans will render the first verdict on those entreaties.

Here is what to watch as results roll in.

Will Mr. Trump crack 50 percent?

Traditionally, Iowa caucuses are squeakers, so close that Democrats failed to produce definitive results in the chaotic 2020 contest. Republicans falsely declared Mitt Romney the narrow winner in 2012, depriving the actual victor, Rick Santorum, the momentum that a caucus triumph can bring.

This time around, polling has consistently shown Mr. Trump well ahead, so much so that the former president hardly campaigned in the state. Until the final weekend, he and his campaign were projecting confidence in a blowout victory, which has raised expectations when most campaigns seek to lower them.

If Mr. Trump exceeds 50 percent, he will earn what he predicted would be “a historic landslide.” Perhaps more important, Iowa will have signaled that even if the Republican field winnows down to Mr. Trump and one competitor, he still may have the allegiance of a majority of the party’s primary voters, at least in the nation’s heartland.

Who will claim second place?

Mr. DeSantis officially joined the Republican presidential race in May with strong financial backing and talk that he would win Iowa and help the party turn the page on Mr. Trump while still embracing his policies.

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Lionel Messi makes successful return for PSG with goal in post-World Cup debut

CNN
—

Lionel Messi celebrated his return to Paris Saint-Germain with a goal in his first game back since lifting the World Cup.

The 35-year-old only returned to training in the new year after taking some time off to celebrate and recuperate after Qatar 2022, where he finally won the trophy that had always eluded him in one of the greatest finals ever.

But the forward didn’t look to be suffering any hangover as he returned to action with a goal from close range in PSG’s 2-0 win against Angers on Wednesday.

Messi also paid tribute to Pelé before the match, joining his teammates in wearing a t-shirt with the Brazilian’s face on it during the warmup.

PSG sits comfortably top of the league despite Christophe Galtier having to switch up his team as he eases players back in after the World Cup.

Kylian Mbappé, a beaten finalist in Qatar, was rested for Wednesday’s match, allowing the likes of youngster Hugo Ekitiké to get some game time.

The 20-year-old forward has impressed when given the chance this season and opened the scoring with a sweeping finish in the first half.

Messi, who dovetailed the attack alongside Neymar Jr., then doubled the lead in the 72nd minute after a well timed run and right foot finish.

The linesman had initially flagged for offside, but the Virtual Assistant Referee (VAR) overruled the call and the goal was given.

The win on Messi’s return is some welcome good news for PSG, who lost in the league for the first time this season last week, 3-1 away to Lens.

“Yes, it was very important to get back to winning ways. We have rivals who are pushing hard,” Galtier told PSGTV after the game.

“We knew that we were going to have a difficult match because Angers is a team that plays good football and poses big problems on a tactical level.

“I also insist on the fact that the situation – post-World Cup – means that we have had a lot of players absent, that the group was very scattered and that, little by little, everyone is coming back and reconnecting.”

PSG, which is six points clear atop the table, plays Rennes in its next game on Sunday.

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Iowa Poll Finds Trump Leading by Wide Margin, Haley in Second Place Ahead of DeSantis

Donald J. Trump has the backing of 48 percent of likely caucusgoers ahead of Monday’s election, a commanding lead for the former president, according to the Iowa Poll by The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom.

Nikki Haley is narrowly leading the battle for second place over Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, 20 percent to 16 percent, according to the survey, which was released on Saturday evening.

The poll shows Ms. Haley, the former United Nations ambassador, improving compared with December and Mr. Trump slipping — but only marginally. He enjoys a 28-point lead, compared with a 32-point advantage last month.

The survey has almost nothing but good news for the former president. He leads with every demographic group tested, performing most strongly among those without a college degree, those earning less than $50,000 and men who did not graduate from college. He pulled in the support of roughly three in five voters in those three categories.

His supporters were also more enthusiastic about voting than those of his rivals, and Ms. Haley’s enthusiasm levels were markedly below his — and even below Mr. DeSantis’s.

And Mr. Trump is ahead by so much that his support is greater than what Ms. Haley and Mr. DeSantis are garnering — combined.

More than two-thirds of voters said they had made up their minds, while only 7 percent said they did not yet have a first-choice candidate on the cusp of the caucuses. One in four likely caucusgoers said they could still be persuaded to pick a new candidate.

The caucuses are not limited to Republicans — both independent voters and Democrats can vote in the election, if they re-register as Republicans on caucus night.

One of the survey’s more striking findings is that roughly half of Ms. Haley’s support is coming from independents (39 percent) and Democrats (11 percent).

Ms. Haley’s strongest demographic groups are no surprise — those who live in suburbs and white women with college degrees — but even among those constituencies she does not lead Mr. Trump.

Historically, one of the most important groups in Iowa Republican caucuses are evangelical voters, and Mr. Trump leads widely among those voters, with 51 percent. Mr. DeSantis is a distant second with 22 percent, but that is actually lower than his support level among that demographic in the December survey. Ms. Haley is pulling only 12 percent among evangelical voters.

The poll — conducted by J. Ann Selzer from Jan. 7 to 12, with a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points — comes during an unusual cold snap even for Iowa.

The weather has made turnout predictions on Monday especially volatile. The Trump, DeSantis and Haley campaigns have been studying the impact of the storm for any potential advantage.

The poll does show an enthusiasm edge for Mr. Trump. He has the largest share of enthusiastic supporters, with 49 percent saying they are extremely enthusiastic and 39 percent very enthusiastic.

There is one strong result in the poll for Mr. DeSantis on a caucus night expected to set records for its cold temperatures: His supporters were the most likely to say they will definitely caucus, with 62 percent saying so, slightly above the numbers for Mr. Trump or Ms. Haley. In the previous Iowa Poll, in December, Mr. Trump was the first choice of a 51 percent majority of likely caucusgoers.

Here are the numbers from the December poll: Trump – 51%, DeSantis – 16%, Haley – 16%

And here are the numbers from the new poll: Trump – 48%, DeSantis – 16%, Haley – 20%

The margin of error for the new poll is 3.7 percentage points.

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